India's Fighter Jet Dilemma: Does AMCA Signal the End of the MRFA?

The Indian government's recent green light for the ambitious Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program has sparked renewed debate about the long-delayed Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender.

This tender aims to procure 114 fighter jets from foreign manufacturers. Despite mounting pressure to abandon the MRFA in favor of indigenous production, sources close to the program suggest that scrapping the tender remains unlikely.

The MRFA: A Protracted Process​

The MRFA tender, designed to bolster India's dwindling fighter squadrons, has drawn interest from global aerospace giants. Each offers advanced aircraft to fulfill the Indian Air Force's (IAF) needs.

Yet, the tender's progress has been frustratingly slow. It remains stalled at the pre-Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) stage, leaving the IAF with a troubling shortage of fighter jets while domestic options like the AMCA and Tejas MkII remain under development.

The IAF strongly backs the MRFA's plan for 114 jets to be built in India with technology transfers. But the lack of a finalized deal signals a potentially lengthy journey to completion.

Alternative Paths: Government-to-Government Deals​

Amid this bureaucratic tangle, India's government isn't ruling out alternatives, specifically government-to-government (G2G) purchases.

This route could see India acquiring fighters directly from a favored manufacturer, like Dassault Aviation and its Rafale aircraft.

A G2G deal could significantly speed up procurement, providing the IAF with much-needed reinforcements.

AMCA: The Future vs. The Urgent Need​

The AMCA represents India's bold technological leap towards defence self-sufficiency. However, the IAF's urgent operational requirements must also be met. Calls to cancel the MRFA and focus entirely on domestic production ignore this immediate crisis.

A G2G deal needs careful analysis. India must balance cost, the fighter's capabilities compared to other MRFA contenders, and how it dovetails with India's long-term defence goals. The choice must prioritize combat effectiveness, dependable support, and affordability.

Conclusion​

The AMCA's approval highlights India's determination to build its own cutting-edge defence technology. Yet, the MRFA tender's uncertainty and the IAF's dwindling combat power create a complex dilemma.

The Indian government must navigate a delicate path, balancing future aspirations with the immediate necessity to bolster its air power. The final decision will have far-reaching implications for the IAF's capabilities and India's defence industry.

 

[Bharat007]

Bharat should go for 36/54 Rafales through G to G deal and scrap MRFA. With sanction of Tejas Mark-2 and AMCA, MRFA is almost dead for good .

Makes sense. G2G deal will fastrack purchase.

 

[Bharat007]

No need of MRFA as within the same timeline, AMCA will be ready. Rafale will not be available before 2030 if we give orders now. F15, F21, MIG 35, GRIPPEN are already outdated by present technology standards.

What if AMCA is delayed further? It is difficult to trust Indian public sector.... Because of tarikh pe tarikh.

 

[Frank]

By 2040, India needs:-

1. 7 squadrons of MRFA (114 Rafale ofc, production in India)
2. 12 squadrons of Tejas Mk 2 (240 units at least, to replace MiG 29, Jaguar, Mirage 2000)
3. 10 squadros of Tejas Mk 1A (220 units; already on order)
4. 3 squadrons of AMCA Mk 1 (60 units)

And along with 2 Rafale and 10 Su 30 MKI squadrons already in service, IAF can reach 44 squadron strength.
Later Su 30 maybe replaced by AMCA Mk 2 (by 2045)

No
By 2040 IAF should have..

200 TEJAS MK1
200+TEJAS MK2
36 Rafale
280 Su 30
100 AMCA

45 Squadrans

More than enough

No need for MRFA

 

[Frank]

840 is the atleast bro, still one can extend mk2 numbers to 500+ . Mk2 is an ORCA afterall.

We can buy 400 Tejas mk2 at the price of MRFA

 

[Superpower Bharat]

My solution.... Search for 2nd engine for MK1A ( may be RD-93 or our own Kaveri- but for that full fund sanction for Kaveri including test facility and flying test bed).. increase next order from 97 to 150.. convince a pvt sector to manufacture around 80-90 aircraft... Tell them half of mk2 order will be manufactured there also.. and half of AMCA and TEDBF order also... If not full as SPV model... No mmrca this is the best solution...

 

[Ashutosh]

We can buy 400 Tejas mk2 at the price of MRFA

Quite surprised to know that u already know the per unit price of LCA mk2.....ab to gussa ho jaega ve*ya bola to.

MRFA will be locally manufactured and would be much cheaper, not just that imp. thing is pvt. sector involvement.

One more thing: LCA mk2 ki bhi koi aukat hai, 114 fighters me tu 400 LCA nhi kharid sakta , MWF kaha se kharidega!?

 

[Anant]

Total nonsense

NO NEED FOR MRFA

NO NEED FOR PHOREN MAAL

200 TEJAS MK1 AND

200 TEJAS MK2 IS ENOUGh

Explain production schedules and the balance production and retirement of older squadrons on a year-by-year basis. Go ahead, I'll wait.

It's easy to say we shouldn't import, but the numbers mandate it, whether you like it or not.

Here's a brief of my analysis:

As of 2024, we have 33 fighter squadrons. That will fall to 31 by 2025 with the retirement of the MiG-21. Assuming that HAL can hit 9 aircraft a year by 2027-28 (a very optimistic assumption) that will allow you to bring in a new squadron by 2027-28, and one new squadron every second year thereafter. That means that by 2035-36, we would have 36 squadrons. At that point, the Mirage 2000, Jaguar, and MiG-29s will be due for replacement, which (as of today) is some 14 squadrons. Even if you assume HAL can manufacture 9 Tejas Mk 2s a year by 2035-36 (again, overly optimistic), you can now add a full squadron equivalent a year. Even with this and committed orders (and with the upcoming retirement of older Su-30MKIs), the IAF won't actually reach 42 squadrons (even with AMCA, since the Tejas Mk 1 line will also end at some point) until the second half of the 2040s.

Oh, and all of that is on the assumption that everything goes right. If there were to be delays in induction of the Tejas Mk II or AMCA, or if HAL were to face delays in scaling up production, you can push that date into the 2050s, when the bulk of the Su-30MKI fleet will be approaching the end of its life.

Now, tell me this: Are you willing to risk India's defence for that long? Need it also be added that the 42 squadron requirement is outdated, and with both China and Pakistan increasing the sizes of their services, the required number has actually risen, and is now estimated to be around 45-51 squadrons?

 

[Anant]

By 2040, India needs:-

1. 7 squadrons of MRFA (114 Rafale ofc, production in India)
2. 12 squadrons of Tejas Mk 2 (240 units at least, to replace MiG 29, Jaguar, Mirage 2000)
3. 10 squadros of Tejas Mk 1A (220 units; already on order)
4. 3 squadrons of AMCA Mk 1 (60 units)

And along with 2 Rafale and 10 Su 30 MKI squadrons already in service, IAF can reach 44 squadron strength.
Later Su 30 maybe replaced by AMCA Mk 2 (by 2045)

I would say we would have 8 MRFA squadrons (150 aircraft in total including the Rafales), 13-15 Tejas Mk 2 squadrons, 10-13 Tejas Mk I/IA squadrons, and some 5-8 (minimum) squadrons of AMCA, with some of the newer Su-30MKI squadrons (say, 6-8 squadrons) still in service by 2044-45 (2 decades from now). That will make for between 42 and 52 squadrons in service. It has been identified some time back that the 42 squadron target itself is somewhat outdated, and may need to be increased.

 

[Anant]

No
By 2040 IAF should have..

200 TEJAS MK1
200+TEJAS MK2
36 Rafale
280 Su 30
100 AMCA

45 Squadrans

More than enough

No need for MRFA

Do you seriously believe that HAL, an organization that has proven utterly incapable of producing more than 4-5 aircraft a year, can manufacture over 500 jets in 15 years? Even more so when some 300 or so are of types that still do not exist. You really need a reality check, don't you?

 

[Akash Vashisth]

Rafales will be made in India. Just wait for elections to end.

 

[Frank]

Do you seriously believe that HAL, an organization that has proven utterly incapable of producing more than 4-5 aircraft a year, can manufacture over 500 jets in 15 years? Even more so when some 300 or so are of types that still do not exist. You really need a reality check, don't you?

I hate Hal... Everyone knows...

Production can be given to Adani or LT or TATA

60:40 ratio(L1:L2)

By 2028,
80 jets per year production possible (20 HAL+30 L1+ 30 L2)

Even 60 per year is enough

Tata Lt Adani.. All They do is screw driving anyway..

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

F21, F15 are already 50 years old design and are very easy to track down due to very large RCS. Mig 35 is dead. Grippen is nothing better than Tejas. Rafale fighters will not be ready very soon due to supply constraints.

That only left Indegenous fighters.

IF F21, F15 are outdated designs, then what does it make our Tejas for it lacks the network-centric data fusion? And maybe you are unaware, Gripen E/NG possesses the most advanced datalink networking system and has far better sensor fusion as compared to Tejas. Yes Rafale fighters cannot be supplied soon, based on current production capacity. That's why the French are seeking a lumpsum order for Rafale fighters so that they can shift some part of the production to India.

 

[Frank]

Quite surprised to know that u already know the per unit price of LCA mk2.....ab to gussa ho jaega ve*ya bola to.

MRFA will be locally manufactured and would be much cheaper, not just that imp. thing is pvt. sector involvement.

One more thing: LCA mk2 ki bhi koi aukat hai, 114 fighters me tu 400 LCA nhi kharid sakta , MWF kaha se kharidega!?

MRFA will not be lacally fanufactered, it will be screw driving by importing all the parts

Re tard mk2 is not MWF

Price of 400 mk2 will be 70 million at best. Due to mass manufacturing can be lowered rl 60 million..

 

[SK]

It's more sensible for Indian Govt to consider investing in:-

1. Additional 18 to 36 Rafale jets for IAF
2. Encourage a JV b/w IAF & IN for TEDBF (ORCA) & AMCA

It makes No sense for IAF & IN to not to establish a JV to invest in TEDBF (ORCA) & AMCA programs.

Logistical synergy & Economy of Scales are the most important factor when investing in such long term Strategic projects.

 

[nakul1307]

My 2 cents:

1. 72 Rafale gog, make in India (along with naval variants) with MRO. By the time mrfa process finishes, will be too late.
2. 36 SU57 (i doubt we will get any other 5th gen) if it is logistically and geopolitically feasible to keep parity with China.

 

[Frank]

Explain production schedules and the balance production and retirement of older squadrons on a year-by-year basis. Go ahead, I'll wait.

I have already explained the production timeline in previous reply

Now come to MRFA

Even if India sign MRFA this year (which is not possible)

The delivery of Rafale will start from 2029 at best given large orders of Rafale

Assuming 10 Rafale per year from DRAL(again at best case) it Wil take at least 11 years(2040) to complete order...

Why waste so much money(around 25-30 billion)?? If we order Tejas mk2 instead and start production from 2030 then by 2040 we will have 400 Tejas mk2 if we give private sector production tender to Adani or TATA or LT...

20 mk2 jets per year by hal and rest by private production

Involve two private companies.
60:40 ratio between L1 and L2

80 jets per yaer(20 HAL+30 L1 +30L2)

Very much possible if M0di uses his brain..

Also we will get 400 Tejas mk2 at the price of MRFA.

 

[Ashutosh]

MRFA will not be lacally fanufactered, it will be screw driving by importing all the parts

Re tard mk2 is not MWF

Price of 400 mk2 will be 70 million at best. Due to mass manufacturing can be lowered rl 60 million..

Ur indigenous LCA after 23 years of flight is not 65% indigenous while a Screwdriving product Su30mki will soon have almost 80% indigenised....what is more indigenous!?

Ur indigenous LCA is not even 60+ indigenous and then u have MRFA for whom it's a must to be atleast 50% indigenous 👏👏

Naam pe Jaa mat ...kaam pe jaa....
LCA AF mk2 was named MWF first but it was still lighter acc. to our IAF.

The world considers Gripen E as an MRFA, but for IAF it's an LCA...Gripen E ( not to be confused with Gripen C) and Tejas mk2 is of the same class. They are medium weight fighters .

Abe konsa Nasha kar liya!?
F15 ki unit cost 80 million hai , LCA mk1a ki unit cost 63 million hai aur tujhe 400 MWF 70 million me mil jayega!?

Abe nashedi, kya Sungh liya tine

 

[Frank]

No need for MRFA at all

 

[beencensured]

Lol ! debate ?? Only the author thinks so. For anyone with common sense, it is cleat that even today AMCA is no more than a fantasy. MRFA is absolutely necessary if India is serious about its security!

When all the engineer drawings, testing and technology development of AMCA made like bulkheads, and so on why you have doubts about it.

 

[Frank]

My solution.... Search for 2nd engine for MK1A ( may be RD-93 or our own Kaveri- but for that full fund sanction for Kaveri including test facility and flying test bed).. increase next order from 97 to 150.. convince a pvt sector to manufacture around 80-90 aircraft... Tell them half of mk2 order will be manufactured there also.. and half of AMCA and TEDBF order also... If not full as SPV model... No mmrca this is the best solution...

If kaveri was successful we would not need anything...

Everything would be so easy