Pakistan's KAAN Interest Wanes as FC-31 Gains Traction

Pakistan's future fighter jet procurement hangs in the speculation. Despite early interest in Turkey's ambitious TF-X (KAAN) program, recent moves point towards a possible pivot towards the Chinese FC-31 stealth fighter.

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief's confirmation regarding the FC-31 raises questions about the enduring viability of the KAAN option.

Financial Constraints and Acquisition Priorities​

Defense analysts believe Pakistan's financial limitations could be a significant factor in prioritizing the FC-31. With the CEO of Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) estimating a per-unit cost of $100 million for the KAAN, a price point surpassing even later models of the F-35, Pakistan's prior struggles with affording F-16 Block-52 jets raise significant concerns.

The PAF's confirmed interest in procuring the FC-31, while contingent upon its operational readiness, likely won't be realized before 2030. This timeline aligns with the FC-31's anticipated mass production schedule.

Noteworthy is the Pakistani interest in the carrier-based FC-31 variant, a move more in line with the necessities of the Chinese Navy than the PAF's own needs.

Strategic Alignment and Logistical Considerations​

The Indian Air Force's assessment mirrors this sentiment, suggesting Pakistan is unlikely to acquire the FC-31 before 2030 – a conclusion factoring in the fighter's ongoing development in China.

Pakistan's recent high-interest acquisition of 25 J-10CE fighter jets from China, along with forecasts for a potential future purchase of 50 additional J-10CEs, signals a strategy of relying on established infrastructure.

This reduces logistical complexities and could play a role in favoring the FC-31 should China make export versions available.

The Evolving Landscape of Pakistan's Air Power​

While the door to the KAAN program may not be entirely closed for Pakistan, financial barriers and a growing alignment with Chinese military technology could sway the PAF's decision.

The FC-31's ongoing development, coupled with Pakistan's need to replace aging F-16 fleets, creates a complex procurement puzzle.

Analysts will be closely watching Pakistan's next moves to determine whether this represents a definitive shift in strategic partnerships or merely a hedging of bets amidst an uncertain geopolitical climate.

 

[nakul1307]

None of the 5th gen fighter is combat proven. The most advanced, combat-proven jet is the Rafale. So 6 squadrons of Rafale is feasible. As F-35 has higher maintenance costs, lower availability rate.

Moreover, purchasing foreign 5gen means AMCA getting more delayed and reduced order book.

Yes, availability rate was reported to be 15 to 25% only

 

[nakul1307]

At the rate they are killing chinese in pak, who knows what will happen in 10 years. It's for sure that bhikharistan will ask them for free. Won't be able to pay.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

Even so, Sir, what you are suggesting works out to 6-8 squadrons. That is between 108 and 144 aircraft. Even if you assume a 200 million USD per aircraft price (which is fairly optimistic considering the price at which these jets are being sold), this works out to between 21.6 billion and 28.8 billion USD. The 10-12 billion USD price tag is not happening.

Secondly, even if our GDP reaches 7 trillion USD by 2030-31, the government budget would be around 1 to 1.1 trillion USD, which then works out to a defence budget of about 120 billion USD at most. In that scenario, the capital acquisition budget would sit at about 35 billion USD. Assume the IAF gets 25% of that, and you end up at 8.75 billion.

My cost estimate is based on cost of platform that is around $100 millions for F-35 . Naturally cost of spares , training,armaments and infrastructure will add . In any future acquisitions,it is expected that Bharat will insist on maximum integration of indigenous weapons. My budget eastimates are based on 2% of GDP as defence budget and 33% of it as defence capital budget,a slight improvement from present 29% .

 

[Benith Israel]

I agree with the assessment of the IAF, regarding their procurement after 2030. We will get steady supply of AMCA by 2035.

Turkey's kaan will be marketed mainly to the rich middle east countries who want to get their hands on a 5th gen fighter but out of the available platforms, on russia can sell them su-57, which will make US angry so gulf cou tries wont go for it.

Really, U don't know geopolitics of middle east. Turkey is no ally of arabs or Shias. They got independence from them. Turkey has only 3 options Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Africa.

 

[amerjit johal]

AMCA is at least a decade away. Tejas Mark-2 is also at least 7-8 years away.In addition to ramping up production of Tejas mark-1A, Bharat should quickly order for 2-3 additional squadrons of Rafales and try to get 4-5 squadrons of F-35 A from US. F-35 is only proven 5th generation fighters besides F-22 .

My source tells me that US is begging India to purchase F35

 

[amerjit johal]

No . US can change its current rigid stance if administration changes in this year election. US itself dumps S-400 as junk and ineffective. US is now flying 6th generation prototype of NGAD . Excuse of S-400 is only political not technical.

NGAD is like AMCA.
On paper only.

 

[Akshat]

Agreed that F-35 still has some problems and low availability rate but it is still the only stealth fighter that works . In next 10 years ,$10-12 billions for acquisitions of 6-7 squadrons of Rafales and F-35 are not a significant budgetary issue for rapidly growing Indian economy . I hope next US administration will consider sales of F-35 to Bharat that can effectively provide IAF an edge over its main adversary PLAAF.

Who will give those for 10-12 billion dollars????

 

[Akshat]

The MRFA acquisition will cost quite a bit more than 12 billion USD. 114 aircraft at 200 million USD each comes to some 22.8 billion USD. Increase the per unit cost to 250 million, and the overall price goes up to 28.5 billion USD.

The 200-250 million usd price you are quoting includes weapons and all. Usually when you make local production related deals, you will break it in parts. So weapons will go separately. Logistics part can also be broken down if it is given to the local partner. As per some sources the cost of barebones Rafale in the 36 Rafale deal was about 90 million USD. The cost for France at that time was about 68 million USD, so the 90 million USD price already has significant profit margins. So if the main deal has just 114 Rafales manufactured in India (15% off the shelf), the cost will be significantly less. Same for any other jet that we may buy under MRFA. The other components of the deal then can be signed separately over time.

 

[Sridhar]

AMCA is at least a decade away. Tejas Mark-2 is also at least 7-8 years away.In addition to ramping up production of Tejas mark-1A, Bharat should quickly order for 2-3 additional squadrons of Rafales and try to get 4-5 squadrons of F-35 A from US. F-35 is only proven 5th generation fighters besides F-22 .

US will not be keen to sell F35 unless India dumps S400

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Really, U don't know geopolitics of middle east. Turkey is no ally of arabs or Shias. They got independence from them. Turkey has only 3 options Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Africa.

I know geopolitics of middle east very well. Turkey used to have bad relations with arab countries because it supports musllim brotherhood which is the premier political isslam organisation in the world. But in past few years erdogan has mended turkey's relations with arab countries. He has visited UAE, Saudi, egypt etc and made peace. Because turkey was facing financial crisis. When turkey was facing a foreign exchange crisis, saudi arabia deposited dollars in its central bank. What I am saying is that relations ha e improved a lot over the past few years.

 

[charminar_waale_ismail_bhai]

FC-31 is the only option, because Pakistan KAAN't.

 

[charminar_waale_ismail_bhai]

My source tells me that US is begging India to purchase F35

Then we should show some kindness and buy F35 for $1 each and maybe an extra dollar for the Salvation Army.

 

[Sandeep]

Pakistan won't ever get their hands on any Turkish stealth jet because a lot of the technology, parts, components and equipment have been bought from the USA and NATO allies and they won't give permission to turkey to sell their jets to Pakistan. The reason is because they will give access to China who will try and steal that advanced technology and use it to develop their own stealth jet or improve its capabilities which would place all American and NATO allies who use that technology at risk as they will lose any technology supremacy they had over China.

Also China are not going to sell them any stealth fighter jet as Pakistan can't even afford to buy such a expensive equipment and they don't have any education on it's technology capability, maintenance, servicing, operating it, engineering it etc. Another reason why they won't sell it to them is because they won't be able to keep their technology or jets capabilities a secret as the Taliban or some other terrorist group might hack their systems. Another alternative or threat is that the USA might bribe Pakistani officials or hack their systems which will give every single detail of the Chinese stealth jet which will keep American supremacy over them.

 

[Rinku Pandey]

See my reply above in this thread. I have suggested only 2-3 squadrons of Rafales and 4-5 squadrons of F-35 . Next order of Rafales will not include €1.8 billions of ISE , infrastructure is already there for additional 36 Rafales and training of our pilots is already completed . Additional 36 Rafales ,in my view ,will not cost more than $5-6 billions. Bharat can well afford acquisitions of 4-5 squadrons of F-35 as our GDP will be approaching $7-8 trillions by 2030 with defence budget of about $160 billions and defence capital budget can exceed $50 billions by then. Expenditure of about $10-12 billions distributed in 7-8 years only comes at $1.5 billions per year. Money is not a problem at all .

Haha..money is the biggest problem, else we would have got extra 114 rafales by now. Defence budget grows just 1.75% per year and taking into account rupee devaluation, real increase is nil.Even in 2030, our defence budget won't be above $90 billion.

 

[Rinku Pandey]

F-35 is out of option for India , unless we sell our S-400 to other nation..

Once Doolan becomes President, these conditions can be waived off.

 

[Anant]

The 200-250 million usd price you are quoting includes weapons and all. Usually when you make local production related deals, you will break it in parts. So weapons will go separately. Logistics part can also be broken down if it is given to the local partner. As per some sources the cost of barebones Rafale in the 36 Rafale deal was about 90 million USD. The cost for France at that time was about 68 million USD, so the 90 million USD price already has significant profit margins. So if the main deal has just 114 Rafales manufactured in India (15% off the shelf), the cost will be significantly less. Same for any other jet that we may buy under MRFA. The other components of the deal then can be signed separately over time.

I agree, boss, but any deal that you would sign would involve some level of these items as well. Moreover, as far as the government is concerned (since they are the folks releasing the money), they will want to look at prices overall rather than just looking at barebones costs.

 

[Akshat]

I agree, boss, but any deal that you would sign would involve some level of these items as well. Moreover, as far as the government is concerned (since they are the folks releasing the money), they will want to look at prices overall rather than just looking at barebones costs.

On the contrary, the government would prefer looking at the piecemeal prices. Remember Su30 mki? Cost of a Russian made plane was ~40 million USD. We paid about 60 million usd (68 at the end of the contract). We bought the missiles etc. separately. At present India would like to integrate Indian weapons mostly. So those items may not even be required. Just like Su30 mki. Then, no costs for training of pilots or engineers or even ISE. If you take the French sticker price of 68 million USD (though it is from 2014, cost of Rafale as a package has only come down in recent years so it is safe to use that as a marker), and increase it even by 100% (as opposed to 50% in Su30 mki, and HAL is anyways a very inefficient organization), then you will be paying less than 130 million per plane. And I am being generous here. For 114 planes, that’s less than 15 billion USD.

 

[Rajesh]

Commonality in engine ws-13 which is an indigenised (Chinese version)of rd33 ,slavery and monetary issues might force Pakistan to turn back from khalifa to iron brother. Whatever. Will india still be dreaming or we field our own amca against these is to be seen.

 

[Tanishq Bafila]

No . US can change its current rigid stance if administration changes in this year election. US itself dumps S-400 as junk and ineffective. US is now flying 6th generation prototype of NGAD . Excuse of S-400 is only political not technical.

The last administrator under Trump removed Turkey from its F-35 program...

No System is a complete beast , US is not flying any 6th gen jet currently, there is almost a decade for their 6th generation jet to be inducted...

For their 6th generation jet , they need a huge funds , a completely new engine , new missiles ... Unless they are going to develop all secretly since last 5 years then only there is chance that NAGAD will be developed by 2030