Pakistan's KAAN Interest Wanes as FC-31 Gains Traction

Pakistan's future fighter jet procurement hangs in the speculation. Despite early interest in Turkey's ambitious TF-X (KAAN) program, recent moves point towards a possible pivot towards the Chinese FC-31 stealth fighter.

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief's confirmation regarding the FC-31 raises questions about the enduring viability of the KAAN option.

Financial Constraints and Acquisition Priorities​

Defense analysts believe Pakistan's financial limitations could be a significant factor in prioritizing the FC-31. With the CEO of Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) estimating a per-unit cost of $100 million for the KAAN, a price point surpassing even later models of the F-35, Pakistan's prior struggles with affording F-16 Block-52 jets raise significant concerns.

The PAF's confirmed interest in procuring the FC-31, while contingent upon its operational readiness, likely won't be realized before 2030. This timeline aligns with the FC-31's anticipated mass production schedule.

Noteworthy is the Pakistani interest in the carrier-based FC-31 variant, a move more in line with the necessities of the Chinese Navy than the PAF's own needs.

Strategic Alignment and Logistical Considerations​

The Indian Air Force's assessment mirrors this sentiment, suggesting Pakistan is unlikely to acquire the FC-31 before 2030 – a conclusion factoring in the fighter's ongoing development in China.

Pakistan's recent high-interest acquisition of 25 J-10CE fighter jets from China, along with forecasts for a potential future purchase of 50 additional J-10CEs, signals a strategy of relying on established infrastructure.

This reduces logistical complexities and could play a role in favoring the FC-31 should China make export versions available.

The Evolving Landscape of Pakistan's Air Power​

While the door to the KAAN program may not be entirely closed for Pakistan, financial barriers and a growing alignment with Chinese military technology could sway the PAF's decision.

The FC-31's ongoing development, coupled with Pakistan's need to replace aging F-16 fleets, creates a complex procurement puzzle.

Analysts will be closely watching Pakistan's next moves to determine whether this represents a definitive shift in strategic partnerships or merely a hedging of bets amidst an uncertain geopolitical climate.

 

[sanket]

I have already commented Beggaristan can Tilt towards FC-31 Rather than 4.75 Gen KHAAN By selling Donkeys to China.may b Barter Trade Ha Ha Ha.............

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

I agree with the assessment of the IAF, regarding their procurement after 2030. We will get steady supply of AMCA by 2035.

Turkey's kaan will be marketed mainly to the rich middle east countries who want to get their hands on a 5th gen fighter but out of the available platforms, on russia can sell them su-57, which will make US angry so gulf cou tries wont go for it.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

AMCA is at least a decade away. Tejas Mark-2 is also at least 7-8 years away.In addition to ramping up production of Tejas mark-1A, Bharat should quickly order for 2-3 additional squadrons of Rafales and try to get 4-5 squadrons of F-35 A from US. F-35 is only proven 5th generation fighters besides F-22 .

 

[Bharat007]

Kaan will be costly but likely more reliable whereas, FC-31 will be cheaper and likely less reliable when compared with Kaan. Regardless, India should work hard to deliver AMCA before Pak has it's own.

 

[Bharat007]

AMCA is at least a decade away. Tejas Mark-2 is also at least 7-8 years away.In addition to ramping up production of Tejas mark-1A, Bharat should quickly order for 2-3 additional squadrons of Rafales and try to get 4-5 squadrons of F-35 A from US. F-35 is only proven 5th generation fighters besides F-22 .

F-35 is highly unlikely for India. US won't sell it without some conditions like abandoning S400 or even might ask India to purchase F22/F15 as condition for selling F-35. Moreover, India might need additional investments to operate F-35 which will be very costly.

 

[The_rED_dEVIL]

AMCA is at least a decade away. Tejas Mark-2 is also at least 7-8 years away.In addition to ramping up production of Tejas mark-1A, Bharat should quickly order for 2-3 additional squadrons of Rafales and try to get 4-5 squadrons of F-35 A from US. F-35 is only proven 5th generation fighters besides F-22 .

None of the 5th gen fighter is combat proven. The most advanced, combat-proven jet is the Rafale. So 6 squadrons of Rafale is feasible. As F-35 has higher maintenance costs, lower availability rate.

Moreover, purchasing foreign 5gen means AMCA getting more delayed and reduced order book.

 

[Ysmir Rewari]

Kaan will be costly but likely more reliable whereas, FC-31 will be cheaper and likely less reliable when compared with Kaan. Regardless, India should work hard to deliver AMCA before Pak has it's own.

Pakistan likes to invest more in Information warfare than actual military equipment. And to be honest they use it very efficiently, evident in 2019 clashes with IAF. Despite a downed F-16, they were able to sell it to the world that it was India that lost an Su-30MKI.

 

[Bharat007]

Pakistan likes to invest more in Information warfare than actual military equipment. And to be honest they use it very efficiently, evident in 2019 clashes with IAF. Despite a downed F-16, they were able to sell it to the world that it was India that lost an Su-30MKI.

When it comes to Lies and Deceit, no one can match Islam and Muslims. Only way to counter them is never to believe what they say no matter what!

 

[shivkumar sinha]

None of the 5th gen fighter is combat proven. The most advanced, combat-proven jet is the Rafale. So 6 squadrons of Rafale is feasible. As F-35 has higher maintenance costs, lower availability rate.

Moreover, purchasing foreign 5gen means AMCA getting more delayed and reduced order book.

Agreed that F-35 still has some problems and low availability rate but it is still the only stealth fighter that works . In next 10 years ,$10-12 billions for acquisitions of 6-7 squadrons of Rafales and F-35 are not a significant budgetary issue for rapidly growing Indian economy . I hope next US administration will consider sales of F-35 to Bharat that can effectively provide IAF an edge over its main adversary PLAAF.

 

[Ysmir Rewari]

When it comes to Lies and Deceit, no one can match Islam and Muslims. Only way to counter them is never to believe what they say no matter what!

Most people also credit their pedophet as the Liar, and the muslims misled. But in my opinion, pedophet had certain mental disorders, evident from his origin stories. So rather than being a liar, he preached what he saw in his hallucinations like riding donkeys across Arabia.

 

[Anant]

Agreed that F-35 still has some problems and low availability rate but it is still the only stealth fighter that works . In next 10 years ,$10-12 billions for acquisitions of 6-7 squadrons of Rafales and F-35 are not a significant budgetary issue for rapidly growing Indian economy . I hope next US administration will consider sales of F-35 to Bharat that can effectively provide IAF an edge over its main adversary PLAAF.

The MRFA acquisition will cost quite a bit more than 12 billion USD. 114 aircraft at 200 million USD each comes to some 22.8 billion USD. Increase the per unit cost to 250 million, and the overall price goes up to 28.5 billion USD.

 

[Anant]

F-35 is highly unlikely for India. US won't sell it without some conditions like abandoning S400 or even might ask India to purchase F22/F15 as condition for selling F-35. Moreover, India might need additional investments to operate F-35 which will be very costly.

I assume you mean the F-21 rather than the F-22. Even so, the US has already hinted that if an American aircraft were to be selected in MRFA (F-16 or F-15), then the F-35 could be offered at a future point.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

The MRFA acquisition will cost quite a bit more than 12 billion USD. 114 aircraft at 200 million USD each comes to some 22.8 billion USD. Increase the per unit cost to 250 million, and the overall price goes up to 28.5 billion USD.

See my reply above in this thread. I have suggested only 2-3 squadrons of Rafales and 4-5 squadrons of F-35 . Next order of Rafales will not include €1.8 billions of ISE , infrastructure is already there for additional 36 Rafales and training of our pilots is already completed . Additional 36 Rafales ,in my view ,will not cost more than $5-6 billions. Bharat can well afford acquisitions of 4-5 squadrons of F-35 as our GDP will be approaching $7-8 trillions by 2030 with defence budget of about $160 billions and defence capital budget can exceed $50 billions by then. Expenditure of about $10-12 billions distributed in 7-8 years only comes at $1.5 billions per year. Money is not a problem at all .

 

[Deepak Hegde]

Pakistan ka funda clear hai ! Bheek jahaan se aaye woh le lenge !

 

[Tanishq Bafila]

See my reply above in this thread. I have suggested only 2-3 squadrons of Rafales and 4-5 squadrons of F-35 . Next order of Rafales will not include €1.8 billions of ISE , infrastructure is already there for additional 36 Rafales and training of our pilots is already completed . Additional 36 Rafales ,in my view ,will not cost more than $5-6 billions. Bharat can well afford acquisitions of 4-5 squadrons of F-35 as our GDP will be approaching $7-8 trillions by 2030 with defence budget of about $160 billions and defence capital budget can exceed $50 billions by then. Expenditure of about $10-12 billions distributed in 7-8 years only comes at $1.5 billions per year. Money is not a problem at all .

F-35 is out of option for India , unless we sell our S-400 to other nation..

 

[BnglrTester]

If china handed over the nuke designs, uranium required and tested it and then supplied the delivery systems (read missiles) and provides equipments to monitor the flights for pakis, then any weapon development in China will invariably end up in Pakistan. No news. Sad fact is, boomers in IAF will panick when they see PAF with a stealth aircraft. Like they were shocked to see a drone used to attack an airbase. They plan for the last war, like the World war 2 french generals.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

F-35 is out of option for India , unless we sell our S-400 to other nation..

No . US can change its current rigid stance if administration changes in this year election. US itself dumps S-400 as junk and ineffective. US is now flying 6th generation prototype of NGAD . Excuse of S-400 is only political not technical.

 

[Anant]

See my reply above in this thread. I have suggested only 2-3 squadrons of Rafales and 4-5 squadrons of F-35 . Next order of Rafales will not include €1.8 billions of ISE , infrastructure is already there for additional 36 Rafales and training of our pilots is already completed . Additional 36 Rafales ,in my view ,will not cost more than $5-6 billions. Bharat can well afford acquisitions of 4-5 squadrons of F-35 as our GDP will be approaching $7-8 trillions by 2030 with defence budget of about $160 billions and defence capital budget can exceed $50 billions by then. Expenditure of about $10-12 billions distributed in 7-8 years only comes at $1.5 billions per year. Money is not a problem at all .

Even so, Sir, what you are suggesting works out to 6-8 squadrons. That is between 108 and 144 aircraft. Even if you assume a 200 million USD per aircraft price (which is fairly optimistic considering the price at which these jets are being sold), this works out to between 21.6 billion and 28.8 billion USD. The 10-12 billion USD price tag is not happening.

Secondly, even if our GDP reaches 7 trillion USD by 2030-31, the government budget would be around 1 to 1.1 trillion USD, which then works out to a defence budget of about 120 billion USD at most. In that scenario, the capital acquisition budget would sit at about 35 billion USD. Assume the IAF gets 25% of that, and you end up at 8.75 billion.

 

[Man-ju]

Pakistan will not get KAAN right from the beginning as it has GE F110 engines. Just like T129 attack Helicopter deal Americans will block the sale fearing the engine tech leaked to Chinese. Chinese will sell Fc31 to Pakistan as a testbed just like their VT4 tank sale and Pakistan will happily paint it green and call it their indigenous achievement.