While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted:
- As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040.
- If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account.
- If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft.
- Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target.
- Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37.
- By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target.
- Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target.
- By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s.
Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan.
Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above):
A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production).
B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement.
A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement.
Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares.
Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.
