China's Expanding Naval Presence in Bangladesh Raises Concerns for India

Chinese-built facility highlights deepening strategic ties between Bangladesh and China, potentially influencing the balance of power in the Bay of Bengal.

China's Expanding Naval Presence in Bangladesh Raises Concerns for India


China's construction of a sophisticated submarine base in Bangladesh, featuring a large dry dock, has sparked concern in India and within the broader Indo-Pacific strategic community. The development underscores the growing strategic partnership between China and Bangladesh, potentially shifting the regional balance of power.

Defense experts warn that the base could provide China with a new operating location for its submarines in the Bay of Bengal, uncomfortably close to vital Indian naval bases – including a nuclear submarine facility. This enhanced presence could hinder India's efforts to project its naval influence in the region.

Bangladesh's deepening defense relationship with China is no secret. China has emerged as Bangladesh's second-largest arms supplier after Pakistan, fueling concern among Indian strategic planners who must now devise ways to counter China's growing footprint on Bangladesh's naval bases.

While Chinese-supplied weapons don't pose a direct threat to India, Beijing's tightening grip over Bangladesh could significantly impact India's Indo-Pacific strategy in the long term. China has cemented its influence through a 2002 defense agreement that includes military training and equipment supply, with a significant expansion in the naval sector.

The Headache for India​

India had some leverage with Sri Lanka, successfully discouraging it from hosting Chinese spy ships. But Bangladesh, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is likely to be less receptive to Indian concerns.

Hasina, traditionally seen as friendly towards India, has overseen a rapid expansion in diplomatic and economic ties with India. However, her pursuit of closer defense relations with China provides an opening for Beijing to make significant inroads into Bangladesh's strategic affairs.

Bangladesh's ambition to become a regional maritime power has found an eager partner in China. After supplying Bangladesh with two refurbished submarines, China stepped in to build a massive submarine base – inaugurated by Sheikh Hasina last March alongside Chinese officials.

Of particular concern is the new dry dock, suggesting maintenance and overhaul capabilities that raise questions about China's true intentions for the facility.

The $1.21 billion base, funded and developed by China, will likely leave Bangladesh reliant on China for maintenance. This dependency will make it hard for Bangladesh to extricate itself and will force the Indian Navy to accept the presence of Chinese submarines dangerously close to India's Andaman and Nicobar command.

Bangladesh Entangled​

Chinese access to the base, under the guise of maintenance or anti-piracy support, could transform it into an espionage outpost, giving the Chinese navy greater oversight of Indian naval activity in the Bay of Bengal.

Bangladesh, in the process, will become entangled in the Indo-Pacific power play, finding itself as a key reserve player for China.

Additional Considerations​

The base's capacity to hold more submarines than Bangladesh currently possesses suggests either a planned expansion of the Bangladeshi fleet (likely with Chinese vessels) or the direct use of the base by Chinese submarines under the guise of supporting or training Bangladeshi submariners.

This would result in a sustained Chinese military presence on Bangladeshi soil – a deeply concerning prospect for India.
 

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