What if China attacks India?' someone asked me for reasons best known to him. I stand with my point that China will never dare to attack India. (Refer my article 'Indo-Pak war like situation: Why China will not dare to wage a war against India in support of Pakistan' published here on 26th September 2016.
My friend has his logics. China is very aggressive in South China Sea (SCS) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is ready to confront America as it has already deployed carrier vessels in the disputed SCS. America also responded by sending one more carrier vessel to join the existing two armed carrier vessels in SCS.
For China, the CPEC is a prestige issue and it considers India a disturbing force sponsoring opposition of the CPEC through Balochistan people. Thus if required it can attack India irrespective of the challenges mentioned in my previous article.
Many have this concern considering that a communist country can declare a war at its whim irrespective of the challenges ahead. In such a situation what will happen. Will India face 1962 like humiliation or it can defend Chinese attack?
Let me make one thing very clear that from military point of view China is more powerful than India at the moment. Is it the only deciding factor? Ask any veteran, they would say number of military hardware or military personnel (including soldiers) can never be a factor. You have to see who attacks whom and the defender will always have the upper hand.
That means if India attacks China, India will be defeated and similarly if China attacks, then China will be defeated. In war theory, it is always said that the attacker must have the number at least 3:1 in its favour. Given the tough border condition between India and China, the communist nation will have to deploy army in at least 10:1 ratio that means China has to deploy 10 soldiers for each Indian soldier. The mountainous geographic profile always give advantage to the defender.
In air power sector also, China has limitation. Its fighter planes will have to undertake flights from Tibet whereas the Indian Air Force can take off from very near to border. Similarly, despite China having more submarines and war vessels, India has the advantage of choking all supplies to China.
Some people think that China may also attack India from its western border while allying the Pakistani Army. Here the main point to be noted is that the Indian Army is one of the world's best professional armies, which has better understanding on its geography of borders. On the other hand, the Chinese Army had never fought an war and in a foreign country like Pakistan its army would be useless. They can only increase number but have to depend upon war tactic of Pakistani Generals. Pakistani Generals are no match to Indian General's war tactic.
India has a very effective cold start doctrine to which Pakistan has no answer till now. The cold start doctrine is to split Pakistan in to two halves in 24-48 hours and severing all communication between two sides of Pakistan. Thus Pakistan will be clueless if such a cold start doctrine is initiated by India.
The above is an established fact as per many veteran Generals if such a conventional war begins. I don't think there would be any nuclear war. If a nuclear war happens then all the three countries (India, China and Pakistan) will suffer.
Point is simple, attacking another country is not so easy for whichever reason. India is not Afghanistan or Iraq. Thus China will never attack India for any reason. If there will be a war between India and China, then it will be part of world war-III.
SCS dispute has potential to start a world war. But my understanding says that India will remain neutral in such conflict and thus China will also be not interested in provoking India to join USA-Japan-South Korea group.
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By : Biranchi Narayan Acharya
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